MAKING A CASE FOR AMERICAN PROMISE

 Hardly anyone who knows anything about horse racing thinks American Promise has a prayer of winning today’s Kentucky Derby.

“Oh, I wouldn’t go that far. He’s got a shot,” said JOHN 

CLAY, veteran columnist for the Lexington (Ky.) Herald 

Journal … who will be attending his 43d consecutive 

“Run for the Roses.”

In other words, Clay understands – better than most -- 

what it takes to finish first in the world’s most prestigious 

race for three year old Thoroughbreds,. And, like 

everyone who bets on the ponies even occasionally, he’s 

learned anything is possible … even American Promise, 

which qualified by winning the Virginia Derby March 15 

at Colonial Downs in a major upset?

Well, hardly any of the major handicappers we’ve seen in 

video presentations even bothered to mention the son of 

Triple Crown winner Justify trained by Hall of Famer D. 

WAYNE LUCAS, shortly after the field was announced a 

week ago. Journalism, 3-1 on the morning line, was the 

overwhelming favorite. You would be hard-pressed to 

find American Promise mentioned among longshots with 

a chance at claiming the winner’s $3.1 million share of a 

$5 million purse.

In fact, we only heard the “Racing Dude” talking about 

American Promise (with little enthusiasm) … and that 

was because Mr. Dude did a rundown of the entire then-

20 horse field which subsequently was reduced to 19 by 

the withdrawal yesterday of lightly-raced 20/1 Grande.

 BOB BAFFERT’s 12/1 Rodriguezwas pulled earlier 

and replaced by the only remaining standby, 12/1 Baeza

 (a favorite of Hall of Fame jockey JERRY BAILEY).

You would think American Promise checks most of the 

boxes. He drew the No. 5 post position, which has had the 

most winners in the 150 runnings of the Kentucky Derby. 

He’s a very big (17 hands) horse, strong, with lots of 

stamina … who seems to be peaking at the right time.

American Promise turned three years old Thursday. “As a 

May foal, he was immature in his early races,” Lucas 

said. He needed six starts to break his maiden – finally – 

in late December at Oaklawn Park then in two starts 

thereafter finished sixth (disqualified to seventh) before 

coming home a distant fifth.

Lucas once described American Promise as “like a big, 

awkward teenager.” Jockey NIC JUAREZ said, “He’s 

the spitting image of Justify … beautiful … so well put 

together. He’s only three … improving and just figuring it 

all out.”

This after American Promise set a track record in the 

Virginia Derby, run for the first time on Colonial Down’s 

one-turn 1 1/4-mile dirt surface. His time (1:46.41) for the 

1 1/8-mile prep was easily the best of all the qualifying 

races for this year’s Kentucky Derby … which, as usual, 

will be contested at 1 1/4-miles.

Runnerup Render Judgement, who starts in the No. 15 

slot today, trailed by 7 ¾ lengths, surprising even Lucas. 

“I didn’t expect that margin of victory,” Lucas said.

Actually, Team American Promise was mostly concerned 

about favored (4/5) Getaway Car, and Lucas told Juarez, 

“We’re probably the only horse in the race that can 

pressure him, so don’t let him loose on the lead, You’ve 

got to stay in contact with him and make a race of it.”

As it turned out, Getaway Car, trained by Baffert. started 

quickly (as expected) but couldn’t shake American 

Promise. By the only turn (roughly five furlongs), the big 

chestnut colt took the lead and began to pull away.

Getaway Car finished fourth and, despite having enough 

points to make the Kentucky Derby field, was designated 

for a lesser event on the May 3 card by Baffert who 

questioned the horse’s stamina.

A few days ago, in a conference call with local reporters, 

Juarez said American Promise could have kept going at a 

similar pace in a longer race, like the Kentucky Derby.

This will be his first Derby, and Juarez, 31, from 

Maryland, insisted he wasn’t nervous. Asked about 30/1 

American Promise not getting much love, he said he 

didn’t know, nor did he care. 

According to Clay, of the Herald Journal, there were 

several reasons. One, American Promise hadn’t had 

anywhere the level of success of most of his Derby rivals. 

So he won by a lot in record time at Colonial Downs … 

which was discounted by what some experts considered 

weak field and the one-turn layout 

made the time irrelevant at best.

But, most of all, Clay pointed at Lucas, who at 89 is in 

the twi-light of an ultra-successful career that was more 

past than present. “He doesn’t have the clients he used to 

have,” Clay said. “There must be a reason.”

FAVORED AND UNBEATEN Good Cheer ran off with 

the Kentucky Oaks (distaff version of the Kentucky 

Derby) last night. Finishing second and third were a 

couple of 30/1 longshots, Drexell Hill and Bless the 

Broken ,,, Trained by BRAD COX, ridden by LUIS 

SAEZ, Good Cheer went off at 6/5, winning its seventh 

race in as many starts and earning $836.000 from a $1.5 

M purse …. A 30/1 longshot Fondly, winner of the 

March 15 Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs, was out of 

the money. 

NOTING THE Derby of Kentucky: Post time scheduled 

for 7:02 p.m., NBC, Peacock (streaming) … It rained 

yesterday in Louisville, resulting in a slow, soupy surface 

for a 13-race pre-Derby card at Churchill Downs … 

which could help American Promise today. “He likes a 

sloppy track,” Clay said ... Juarez called winning the 

Virginia Derby “the biggest of my career,” topping the 

2017 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (Gr. II) … American 

Promise went off at 13/1 at Colonial Downs and paid 

$16.80 to win... He’s won two of nine starts, with 

earnings of almost $445,000 …  JAMES HETFIELD, 

lead singer of Metalica, was seen hanging around at the 

stall of Sandman yesterday. How appropriate! The horse, 

among secondary choices to win today’s Derby, was 

named after the groups hit “Enter Sandman” which rose 

as high as No. 16 on Billboard’s top 100 hits in 1991.

Until next time ...